![]() Often, if a passer has a decrease in these metrics, it means he has been attempting significantly more difficult passes.īut with Burrow, this has not necessarily been the case. It’s worth noting that the Bengals’ drop percentage of Burrow’s passes has slightly increased (from 3.7% in 2022 to 4.4% in 2023), but needless to say, the larger issues are the sharp reductions in well-thrown passes and catchable passes altogether. That’s the second-largest decline among the same 25 passers, trailing only Andy Dalton. Burrow’s well-thrown percentage is 10.4% lower in 2023 than it was a year ago. And in catchable throw rate, Burrow has fallen from 81.9% in 2022 to 67.3% in 2023, a decline of 14.6% which is by far the largest among the aforementioned 25 QBs.Ī similar story is told if we look at well-thrown percentage, which is a lot like catchable throw percentage, except that it strictly evaluates the accuracy of the pass. So you can have poorly thrown but catchable ball (e.g., high so the receiver has to jump), or you can have a well-thrown but not catchable ball (e.g., on target but defender knocks it away). A “catchable throw” doesn’t have to be well thrown necessarily, it just needs to be in a place where the receiver has a chance at it. Using our catchable throw percentage, though, we can mitigate the impact of receivers’ catching ability. (All stats from here onward will refer to only these “true attempts.”)Ĭompletion percentage is obviously largely dependent on one’s teammates, as any receiver still needs to haul in a pass, no matter how good it is. This is an extremely sharp contrast to Burrow’s 70.5% from last season, and as a matter of fact, his decline of 11.2% is the largest among 25 QBs with at least 200 true attempts in 2022 and 40 in 2023. Among 34 QBs with at least 40 true attempts this season, that’s the second-lowest mark, ahead of only Jordan Love’s 53.7% (entering Thursday). However, Burrow has completed only 59.3% of his true pass attempts this season (i.e., any pass attempt that’s not a throwaway or a spike). Furthermore, specific situations like dropped passes or spikes would penalize a QB’s completion percentage in cases where it’s not necessarily just. Not all completions are created equal, both in terms of how much they benefit the offense and in terms of how difficult they are to achieve. But it’s long been established that completion percentage isn’t the be-all, end-all way to evaluate passing ability. The first thing that jumps out about Burrow’s 2023 stats might be his completion percentage, which has fallen to 55.4% after being above 65% in each of his first three seasons. So what’s up with the offense? Are there signs that the Bengals are about to turn things around, or are they destined to fulfill our model’s projection of finishing last in the AFC North? All in all, only two offensive starters from last year’s team are no longer with Cincinnati – tight end Hayden Hurst (Carolina) and offensive tackle La’el Collins (free agent). Burrow and Joe Mixon are back in the backfield, as is the wide receiver trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. ![]() ![]() They have not yet put up 25 points in a game this season, something they did in nine of their 16 contests a year ago.Īnd all of this has come despite a relative lack of personnel turnover. They are averaging a meager 15.3 points per game (fifth lowest in the NFL) after ranking seventh with 26.1 in 2022. The Bengals, who started 0-2 last year before finishing 12-4, are the AFC North’s only team with a losing record heading into Week 4. NFL footage © NFL Productions LLC.After the Bengals made it to at least the AFC championship game in each of Joe Burrow’s first two full seasons as a starter, expectations were sky-high for Cincinnati’s offense, and the team as a whole, to be among the NFL’s best yet again.īut through the admittedly small sample size of three games, that has been anything but the case. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated.
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